GOP Midterm Angst Rises as Map Widens

BY SABRINA RODRIGUEZ AND OLIVIA BEAVERS

WASHINGTON— Republicans are playing defense on an expanding electoral map, spending hundreds of millions of dollars in the final stretch of the midterms to prevent a Democratic takeover of Congress as campaigns nationwide reach a fever pitch.

With less than three weeks until the election, deep-pocketed GOP groups are trying to push candidates over the finish line, while President Trump and Vice President JD Vance are crisscrossing the country to shore up Republican support in red areas that seemed unassailable just months ago.

Democrats, working to capitalize on Trump’s weak approval ratings and economic concerns amid the war with Iran, have expanded their target map into more Republican-leaning territory. That has forced Republicans to pour in huge sums to defend traditionally safe red seats, while attempting to pick off some seats in purple states such as Michigan and New Hampshire to help stanch potential losses.

In the waning days of campaign season, Republicans hope money and structural advantages in the electoral map will

buoy them—and that polls are wrong. But anxiety is high.

“The House is gone. It’s been long gone” said Doug Heye, a Republican strategist. He said that Democrats could flip 30 seats, adding that he didn’t see the president’s rallies helping.

Meanwhile, Democrats are optimistic about their prospects. “It just feels like America is the battleground state,” said John Anzalone, a Democratic pollster who helps conduct The Wall Street Journal’s surveys. “Everything is up for grabs.”

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report said recently the most likely outcome is Democrats flipping a net of nine to 19 House seats. Republicans currently have a 219 to 214 majority, with two vacancies. Cook ranks seven Senate races as tossups—six of which are currently held by Republicans. The GOP has a 53-47 majority in that chamber.

Early voting begins

Voters are already casting their ballots in several states across the country, including Arizona, Iowa and Kansas. In Georgia, voters set a first-day early voting record Tuesday, with more than 188,000 ballots cast in person, beating the record set in the 2022 midterms, the secretary of state’s office said. Georgia, a battleground state, has competitive Senate and governor races.

Trump plans to be in Georgia on Friday to boost Rep. Mike Collins, a Republican, in his bid to unseat Sen. Jon Ossoff, a Democrat. He rallied Wednesday in Arizona, where there are competitive House and governor races, and he had stops this week in Ohio and Alaska to try to shore up the campaigns of GOP Sens. Jon Husted and Dan Sullivan, respectively.

Trump is to campaign next week in North Carolina, where redistricting is making at least one GOP incumbent more vulnerable. Rep. Greg Murphy is facing a more competitive race than expected after his district lost Republican voters, following map changes that were meant to boost GOP fortunes.

On Tuesday, Senate candidates from races in Georgia, Maine and Iowa faced off in debates. Ossoff, the Georgia Democrat, and Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, a Republican, are fighting to keep their seats—and Iowa is an open race. Collins and her Democratic opponent Troy Jackson faced off again on Thursday night.

Big Spend, No Gain?

Republicans are flexing their money advantage over Democrats and throwing hun-dreds of millions of dollars into races across the country. Still, polls haven’t shown significant shifts in high-profile contests since more money started pumping in, with key Senate races largely unchanged.

“What we need to see is those ad dollars transferring into voter enthusiasm,” said Mark Bednar, a Republican strategist, pointing out a consistent voter enthusiasm gap between Democratic and Republican voters. “Republican voters need to get excited in this final stretch.”

Republicans entered this election cycle with a significant advantage on money.

GOP advertisers have outspent Democrats by almost $298 million across eight competitive Senate races— Ohio, Texas, Maine, Michigan, Iowa, Alaska, New Hampshire and Kansas, according to a new report from ad-tracking firm AdImpact.

The Senate race in Ohio between Husted and former Sen. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, is the most expensive Senate general election this cycle in terms of ad spending, with more than $422 million spent, the report found.

The matchup between Democratic state Rep. James Talarico and Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton in Texas came in second—and is one where Republicans are significantly outspending Democrats. Outside Republican groups have poured in over $209 million in the general election, the report found.

Much of that money is coming from Texas PAC, a political-action committee run by the Senate Leadership Fund, the big-donor group aligned with Senate Republicans.

Last week, the Senate Leadership Fund shifted more money toward the Texas Senate race. Rather than working to rehabilitate Paxton’s image, as he has faced a number of legal and ethical scandals, Republican spending has focused on trying to tear down Talarico, according to a Republican working on Senate races.

More competition

Despite the aggressive Republican spending in both Senate and House races, Democrats have sought to expand their map of target races.

In a donor memo from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee on Friday, the House Democratic campaign arm’s executive director, Julie Merz, made the pitch that if the group can raise an additional $17 million by Oct. 22, the party can play in more races.

“We need more resources to close the sale in these winnable seats,” Merz wrote.

The letter cited races such as Florida’s 27th Congressional District, where GOP Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar is fighting off Democratic challenger Eliott Rodriguez as well as South Carolina’s 1st District, where the House Republican--aligned Congressional Leader--ship Fund is now spending.