New Vulnerability Seen in Democratic Favorites

BY JOSEPH DE AVILA AND ANVEE BHUTANI

Democratic leaders hoping to revive the party’s fortunes this fall pinned their hopes on two gubernatorial candidates— Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey and Abigail Spanberger in Virginia— betting on both women’s moderate pragmatism and experience in national security.

The wager is looking increasingly risky. A texting scandal in Virginia has prompted Republicans to inject more money into a race that once looked as though it would be a Democratic landslide, while polls in New Jersey have significantly tightened, putting Democrats on edge.

Spanberger and Sherrill still hold leads over their opponents, but their relative underperformance stands in contrast to what is shaping up to be a runaway victory in the New York City mayoral election for the democratic-socialist assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, who represents another vision for the party. Mamdani has been leading the race against former New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo by double digits.

Spanberger and Sherrill were backed by Democratic national leaders who saw them as more-suited for attracting suburban swing voters than the populist alternative supported by the party’s progressive flank. Mamdani touts a rent freeze, free daycare and grassroots power. Party elders have largely kept their distance.

Sherrill is a former U.S. Navy helicopter pilot from the party’s moderate wing who is serving in her fourth term in Congress. She is facing Republican Jack Ciattarelli, a former small-business man who served in the state General Assembly from 2011 to 2018.

She has emphasized affordability and energy prices alongside leaning on her military record. Her campaign has portrayed Ciattarelli as a farright candidate out of touch with voters, highlighting his praise for President Trump and his defense of the administration’s pause on federal funding for the Hudson Tunnel Project.

“Mikie continues to lead in all of the polls, and ‘100% MAGA’ Jack is stalled and unable to break 45%,” said Carly Jones, a spokeswoman for the Sherrill campaign.

But her relatively safe campaign doesn’t seem to have broken through with some voters, according to analysts. Sherrill’s lead has narrowed to 5 points from 9 points on Aug. 21, with 50% support compared with Ciattarelli’s 45%, according to a Rutgers-Eagleton poll released Wednesday.

“We knew this could turn into a nail-biter,” said Ashley Koning, director of the Rutgers Eagleton poll. Sherrill is looking to succeed Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy, who is limited to two terms. Ciattare l l i has been casting himself as the change candidate in the race after eight years of Democratic control. “Mikie Sherrill will be more of the same or worse,” said Chris Russell, a spokesman for the Ciattarelli campaign. The Republican candidate has sought to build on Trump’s gains among Hispanic and Black voters in 2024, courting traditionally non-Republican constituencies.

“What is unclear is whether those voters who voted for Trump will extend those votes to other Republicans,” said Benjamin Dworkin, director of the Rowan Institute for Public Policy and Citizenship at Rowan University in New Jersey.

In Virginia, Spanberger, a former member of Congress, has built her campaign around economic anxiety and federalworkforce turmoil. The commonwealth is home to hundreds of thousands of federal employees, many of whom faced job losses or furloughs during the recent government shutdown.

Spanberger’s emphasis on the economic fallout from federal cuts has secured her as a front-runner, and she still appears to have the inside track. A poll of likely voters released by Suffolk University on Thursday shows Spanberger leading 52%-43% statewide, but other polls put the race closer.

The election took on a new dimension in recent weeks after the release of text messages from the Democratic candidate for attorney general in Virginia, Jay Jones, in which he discussed hypothetically shooting a GOP state lawmaker. Spanberger’s opponent, GOP Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears, has sought to tie Spanberger to the scandal. Republicans have flooded the airwaves with ads attacking Spanberger on the issue, featuring Spanberger urging supporters to “let your rage fuel you,” framing the Democrat as tone-deaf to the threat of political violence.

Spanberger has tried to avoid discussing the scandal as she toured Northern Virginia and the Richmond suburbs, focusing instead on the shutdown’s impact and pledging to bring stability back to a state heavily reliant on federal paychecks. At rallies, she has highlighted her background as a former Central Intelligence Agency officer and a centrist, swearing off “political nonsense” in Washington.

Earle-Sears has leaned into her combative debate performance at Norfolk State University, where she repeatedly accused Spanberger of lacking “courage” to distance herself from Jones. She has launched advertisements connecting Spanberger to transgender ideology, asserting that Spanberger supports permitting boys in girls’ locker rooms as well as gender transitions for children.

Neither campaign responded to requests for comment.