The Buffalo Blueprint for Defeating Zohran Mamdani

A 30-something long-shot mayoral candidate in cahoots with the left-wing Working Families Party and backed by the Democratic Socialists of America launches an energetic grass-roots campaign that resonates with younger voters and stuns an incredulous political establishment.

That summarizes Assemblyman Zohran Mamdani’s victory last week over former Gov. Andrew Cuomo in New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary. It also describes what happened four years ago in Buffalo, N.Y., when a 39-year-old community activist and union organizer, India Walton, defeated four-term incumbent Mayor Byron Brown in the Democratic primary.

Like Mr. Mamdani, Ms. Walton ran as an unabashed socialist. “We have socialism for Tesla,” she told the New Republic in an interview, “and rugged individualism for everybody else. I want to flip the paradigm.” Like Mr. Mamdani, Ms. Walton lambasted her main rival, Mr. Brown, as a corrupt and out-of-touch pawn of the ultrawealthy donor class. Her support for city-run grocery stores and higher taxes to finance “affordable housing” likewise presaged the Mamdani campaign. And both candidates collected endorsements from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Sen. Bernie Sanders and other high-profile progressive standard-bearers.

The Empire State’s political power base is the New York City region, home to most of the state’s wealth and population. Western New York, including Buffalo, is typically an afterthought in Albany. As governor, Mr. Cuomo bowed to pressure from green groups and banned shale fracking, which could have spawned an upstate employment boom as it did in neighboring Pennsylvania (and in other states, such as North Dakota and Ohio). Instead, the governor proposed new casinos as an economic stimulus for the struggling region. Let them eat poker chips.

When it comes to recovering from last week’s political earthquake, however, Buffalo might offer its downstate neighbors a road map. After losing the primary, Mr. Brown launched a write-in campaign. With key support from moderate Democrats, Republicans, business groups and law enforcement, he defeated Ms. Walton in the general election 59% to 40% to secure a fifth term as mayor. Which proves that a Democratic primary defeat, even in a heavily Democratic city, doesn’t necessarily mean that the game is over.

Write-in campaigns are difficult to pull off, but candidates from both parties have occasionally utilized them effectively. Republican Lisa Murkowski retained her U.S. Senate seat in 2010 with a write-in effort after losing the GOP primary to a teaparty challenger. Detroit Mayor Mike Duggan mounted a write-in campaign to win the Democratic primary in 2013. An ideal write-in candidate for the fall would be New York City Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch, though so far she’s expressed no interest in running. Keep courting her.

Mr. Cuomo conceded the primary, but he hasn’t ruled out running in the November general election as an independent. Like Mr. Brown, he ran a lackluster primary campaign and assumed that wide name recognition was all he needed to secure the nomination. Presumably, Mr. Cuomo knows better now. His bigger challenge is that there will be other candidates on the ballot in November to splinter the anti-Mamdani support. Mayor Eric Adams, elected as a Democrat in 2021, skipped the primary this year and is seeking re-election as an independent. The Republican nominee is Curtis Sliwa, an activist and perennial candidate running another vanity campaign.

To keep Mr. Mamdani out of Gracie Mansion, the anti-Mamdani vote will have to coalesce around a single candidate—presumably Mr. Cuomo or Mr. Adams, each of whom brings a trunkful of baggage to the contest. The former governor was run out of office amid allegations of sexual harassment and sending sick seniors back to nursing homes during Covid. The incumbent mayor has been dogged by accusations of political corruption and cutting deals with the Trump administration to make them go away.

Regardless, Mr. Mamdani is a far graver threat to New York and his party’s national ambitions than his flawed rivals present. He appeals to the type of Democrat the party is already attracting in spades but struggles with voters that the party needs to remain competitive outside deepblue precincts like the Big Apple. Mr. Mamdani performed well with moreeducated white voters but not in neighborhoods with high concentrations of black and Hispanic residents. Mr. Cuomo trounced him among voters without a college degree.

If the city has become unaffordable and less safe, it isn’t because conservatives have been in charge for the past two decades. Mr. Mamdani’s plan nearly to double the minimum wage to $30 an hour would price younger and less-experienced workers out of the labor force. His plan to hike taxes on the rich would give the most productive New Yorkers another reason to relocate. His plan to turn crime control over to social workers would give lawbreakers the upper-hand. Buffalo managed to dodge an insurgent socialist four years ago. Now it’s New York’s turn.

By Jason L. Riley