Republican Nerves Are Fraying Ahead of Tough Midterms

By John McCormick, Elizabeth Findell and Eliza Collins

Republican officials are sounding the alarm and urging significant changes ahead of November’s midterm elections, worried that the war in Iran and Democratic enthusiasm could lead to a blowout. In some places, they fear it might already be too late.

Several top Republicans in Wisconsin have called on the state GOP chairman to resign after a recent state supremecourt election resulted in a liberal candidate beating a conservative one by 20 percentage points.

In Arizona, another of the nation’s most politically competitive states, some Republicans are openly questioning the effectiveness of one of the party’s top outside groups after it failed in its recent effort to win majority control of a Phoenix-area utility board.

Even in deeply red Texas, Republican Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick warned a conservative conference recently that the climate echoes that of 2018, when Democrat Beto O’Rourke nearly defeated GOP Sen. Ted Cruz. He said mudslinging in the GOP Senate primary between Sen. John Cornyn and Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton could hurt down-ballot Republicans—and cost control of the statehouse—if the party remained divided.

The GOP expected a tough year based on history alone: Since World War II, the party holding the White House has gained House seats in just two midterms—1998 and 2002. The war with Iran and surging gas prices, which analysts say could remain elevated for months, have added more headwind.

“It looks dour,” said Rep. David Schweikert (R., Ariz.), who represents a Phoenix-area district that is one of the nation’s most competitive.

He said he had been urging fellow Republicans in tough districts to focus on local matters and offer more empathy for people dealing with economic hardship, which he said he is trying to do in a long--shot bid for governor.

Todd Blodgett, a Republican activist in Iowa, said he sees rising costs hurting farmers and darkening the mood of his state’s voters. “What optimism I did feel pretty much evaporated with this war,” he said. “President Trump is doing what needs to be done, but the price of fertilizer has doubled in Iowa and gas is up 35% to 40% a gallon.”

Nonpartisan analysts say Democrats are favored to win the House and compete for control of the Senate. Just months ago, top Republicans were confident they wouldn’t lose the Senate, which would jeopardize Trump’s ability to win confirmations to his cabinet or the Supreme Court.

The Cook Political Report recently moved forecasts for three Senate races in states Trump won in 2024 toward Democrats: Ohio moved to tossup, and Georgia and North Carolina are leaning blue. It also shifted several House races in favor of Democrats and said the governor’s race in Iowa—a state Trump won by 13 percentage points in 2024—is a tossup.

Midterm elections are typically a referendum on the president, and Republicans are also anxious because they never quite know what to expect from their leader. Trump’s job approval at 36% is a low point for his second term in Gallup’s tracking poll. And his recent attack on Pope Leo XIV and decision to post an AI-generated image depicting himself as a Christ-like figure has sparked outrage among many.

Despite positive trend lines for Democrats, it won’t be an easy ride to victory. Generational and policy divisions are straining the party, which could result in less competitive general-election candidates emerging from coming primaries.

Some individual Democratic candidates have seen fundraising success, but the Democratic National Committee and the party’s allied House and Senate committees have collectively trailed their GOP counterparts. MAGA Inc., the primary super political-action committee tied to Trump, also has more than $300 million to potentially spend on the midterms.

In Wisconsin, the state GOP’s executive committee met Saturday to discuss the leadership of Chairman Brian Schimming after the state supreme court loss, said Chris Slinker, a committee member.

“If you own a football team and your quarterback keeps throwing interceptions, would you keep that quarterback?” he asked.

In Iowa, where there are two tossup House races, GOP anxiety centers around Cook’s shift of the governor’s race to tossup. Jeff Kaufmann, Republican Party of Iowa chairman, called the change “lazy” and “naive” on social media.

In Arizona, an affiliate of Turning Point USA, the group founded by the late Charlie Kirk, mobilized a significant get-out-the-vote effort for a Salt River Project election earlier this month. While the GOPaligned candidates won the top two spots on the Phoenix-area utility’s board, clean-energy advocates flipped other seats, taking control of the board.

Arizona is home to one of the nation’s most closely watched governor’s races and two of the best pickup opportunities for House Democrats.

“I think everybody would be in agreement that the Republican Party is the underdog this November,” said Thomas Galvin, a Republican Maricopa County supervisor.

Patrick, the Texas lieutenant governor, said he fears complacency among Republicans and has been struck by the number who have told him they would never vote for either Paxton or Cornyn. It would only take 10% to 15% of GOP voters staying home for Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico to win, he said.