GOP Counts On Deep Pockets To Try to Avoid Midterm Losses

BY ALEX LEARY AND MERIDITH MCGRAW

WASHINGTON—With less than six months to go before the midterm elections, Republicans are staring down a litany of challenges: historic trends against the party controlling the White House, fresh economic troubles fed by an unpopular war with Iran and a president who has been dismissive of voter anxieties over rising prices.

To overcome those obstacles, President Trump’s fellow GOP allies are counting on massive financial resources— including an unprecedented $347 million from a Trumpaligned political committee— and closer coordination on a strategy to flip the economy on Democrats.

The message: Putting Democrats in power will only lead to gridlock.

The goal is to prevent the election from becoming a referendum on Trump and to capitalize on Democrats’ bruised public image, people involved in the effort said. To defend their narrow congressional majorities, Republicans plan to conjure up Biden-era inflation, higher crime and scenes of mass crossings at the southern border, warning voters not to turn back the clock, the people said. And they will argue that a divided Congress wouldn’t be able to agree on steps to lower prices.

Though the deck is stacked against them, Trump’s allies suddenly see a glimmer of hope, buoyed by legal victories on their nationwide restricting push and the cash advantage over Democrats.

The White House plans to deploy Trump to motivate supporters who might other-

wise stay home and highlight key provisions of the sweeping 2025 tax law—which every Democrat opposed—such as tax breaks for tipped workers and seniors. The president is now burdened with low approval ratings and often drifts off message, but aides said he maintains unrivaled influence among conservatives.

Republicans widely expect a difficult November, and many think control of the House will be lost, while the Senate remains competitive. Trump has created problems for the party, including recent comments suggesting he isn’t focused on Americans’ financial struggles during negotiations over the Iran war. The war has driven inflation to a three-year high, eating into the benefits of Trump’s tax cuts, including higher refunds, and further darkening the GOP’s political prospects.

Republicans plan to leverage their deep pockets to finance a barrage of ads, as well as far-reaching voter contact and turnout operations, according to people familiar with the matter, building on data used in Trump’s 2024 campaign. This past week, the Republican National Commit---tee announced an “election integrity” program to challenge state election procedures or defend states that have new voter ID requirements, while also recruiting poll watchers. Democrats characterize such moves as voter suppression.

Some Republicans have privately questioned if Trump will unleash the hundreds of millions that have poured into MAGA Inc., the super politicalaction committee aligned with the president, suggesting he will want to hold on to it for other things. “MAGA Inc. is committed to retaining and building the GOP majorities in the House and Senate,” spokesman Alex Pfeiffer said, adding the group wouldn’t disclose strategy through the media.

At times, the president has seemed resigned to losing, pointing out that the party in control almost always suffers in the midterms. Privately, Trump has occasionally told aides that he doesn’t care about the outcome, according to people familiar with the comments. Those people said Trump has expressed frustration with the party not enacting his agenda, chiefly a controversial elections bill, but that he is nonetheless focused on protecting the majority in November.

This month, Virginia’s high court tossed out a voter-approved congressional map designed to produce more Democratic seats, part of the redistricting tit-for-tat that kicked off with Republicans’ rare mid-decade redistricting in Texas last year. On Friday, the U.S. Supreme Court rejected a petition from Virginia Democrats to restore the map.

The Supreme Court also ruled this month that a Louisiana map was an unconstitutional racial gerrymander, narrowing the scope of the Voting Rights Act and opening the door for states to redraw certain maps ahead of the midterms.

Trump and his aides are ramping up pressure on Republican states to pursue middecade redistricting plans, and Republicans now think they can potentially pick up as many as eight seats in states including Mississippi, Missouri, Louisiana and Alabama.

Republicans now have 210 seats marked as safe, likely or leaning toward their candidate, compared with Democrats with 207, according to the nonpartisan Cook Political Report, with 18 races considered a toss up.

Trump’s political comeback in 2024 was built on his economic promises, but voters increasingly think he has failed to deliver, public opinion surveys show. A CNN poll released this past week found that 70% of Americans disapprove of his handling of the economy, and 77%—including a majority of Republicans— said his policies have increased the cost of living.

“This election is a contrast between the pain families are experiencing in Republicans’ failed economy, versus Democrats’ plan to lower gas, grocery, and healthcare costs,” said Will Van Nuys, deputy executive director of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.

Voters view both parties negatively, but Republicans plan to cast Democrats as too outside the mainstream, while raising fears over a return of softer crime policies and cuts to immigration enforcement.

“You want to remind voters how bad Democrats are, and the numbers indicate voters are in a mood to accept that,” Neil Newhouse, a GOP pollster not affiliated with the Trump effort. But economic concerns are paramount, and voters are reminded daily of higher costs as they fill up their gas tanks and shop for groceries.

“Until we see some settling down of inflation and gas prices coming down, that’s what Americans are going to be focused on,” Newhouse said.

The RNC had $116 million cash on hand at the end of March, records show, compared with $14 million for the Democratic National Committee, which had $18 million in debt for the same reporting period. GOP House and Senate committees have smaller advantages over Democratic counterparts.

Republicans are also hopeful the Supreme Court rules favorably in a case seeking to eliminate restrictions on coordination between party committees and candidates. That would supercharge the cash advantage because parties could then get the lowest possible advertising rates, which by current law are only available to candidates.

The White House plans to put Trump on the campaign trail as many as 30 times before the election to rally his supporters, according to a person familiar with the plans.

While Trump might be helpful with getting his base to the polls, he is being kept at arms length by some Republican candidates in moderate states and districts. Trump in turn is laying off some of his frequent Republican targets, including Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, who is in a crucial race that could help decide control of the chamber.

Trump has also called for a rare midterm convention to call attention to the party and candidates as voting begins. It is expected to take place in Dallas in September, people involved in the effort said.

By then, voters will be inundated with political advertising. “This is not a kindler, gentler messaging coming up,” Newhouse said. “It’s going to be a knife fight through Election Day.”