Ayotte Becomes Bright Spot for GOP

BY KEN THOMAS AND SABRINA RODRIGUEZ

LOUDON, N.H.—A decade ago, Kelly Ayotte was narrowly defeated in one of the closest Senate races in the nation. This year, her re-election campaign for governor could serve as a rare bright spot in a rough year for Republicans.

Ayotte, who was first elected New Hampshire’s governor in 2024, has maintained a steady lead in polls over her Democratic opponent, Cinde Warmington, offering a fresh reminder for Republicans about how to win over independent voters in battleground states.

In her first term as governor, Ayotte, 58 years old, emphasized the “New Hampshire advantage”—playing up the state’s low-tax status within New England and quality-of-life benefits—and steered clear of areas where she might end up at odds with the White House.

She has reprised the lighthearted advertising from her 2024 campaign, in which she appeared with her husband, Joe Daley, who joked about her limited cooking skills. In a new ad, Daley tells her, “you’re a great mom,” prompting Ayotte to ask, “And I’ve gotten better at cooking, right?” Daley mouths “no” to the camera and the ad cuts to them eating Chinese takeout.

Republicans are hoping Ayotte at the top of the ticket will boost the party as it tries to maintain control of both chambers of the state legislature and a majority on the state’s executive council while flipping a competitive U.S. Senate seat.

“There’s no question that the Ayotte campaign has got a special sauce that they’ve put together to be very effective in what I think is otherwise going to be a very good year for Democrats around the country,” said Jim Merrill, a longtime Republican strategist in New Hampshire.

Democrats have controlled federal offices in New Hampshire for the past decade, and the state has voted Democratic in every presidential election since 2004. Ayotte, who won her single Senate term in 2010, is the last New Hampshire Republican to serve in the Senate, and Democrats have controlled the two House seats for the past decade.

The state’s Republicans are hoping Ayotte can help former Sen. John E. Sununu in his Senate battle against Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas. Polls have shown Pappas with a slight lead against Sununu, who is attempting to recapture the seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Jeanne Shaheen.

A recent AARP poll offered a window into the potential for ticket-splitting. In the race for governor, the poll found Ayotte at 52% and Warmington at 45%, with 3% undecided. In the Senate race, Pappas had an edge with 51% and Sununu at 44%, with 5% undecided.

New Hampshire Republican Gov. Kelly Ayotte at Oktoberfest festival. Below, Cinde Warmington.

FROM TOP: SOPHIE PARK/ GETTY IMAGES, JOSEPH PREZIOSO/ AFP/ GETTY IMAGES