GOP Plays Defense on Senate

BY CAMERON MCWHIRTER AND LINDSAY WISE

CHILLICOTHE, Ohio—Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown lost his seat in a 2024 MAGA wave that put Republicans back in control of the Senate.

Now, the three-term Ohio senator is seeking a comeback in a very different political environment, with an unpopular war and high prices denting President Trump’s poll numbers and alarming Republican strategists.

Standing on a recent weekday with about 30 United Steelworkers union members and supporters outside a closed paper mill, Brown talked all about the economy. The professorial Brown, 73 years old, blasted his opponent, Republican Sen. Jon Husted, 58, who was appointed when JD Vance became vice president.

“He’s been on the side of billionaires, not on the side of steelworkers…or people that are struggling in this neighborhood,” Brown said.

Republicans are playing defense in Ohio and a growing number of red states, where Democrats are counting on voter backlash to power them to victory this fall in their longshot battle to retake the Senate.

Brown gave similar stump speeches in 2024, when he lost to Republican Bernie Moreno by about 3.5 percentage points. But uncertainty about the economy, gas prices, the Iran war and other issues since have frustrated the electorate.

Husted, a former lieutenant governor, brushed off the idea that Trump’s sinking approval ratings could drag him down. Recent polls show Husted holding a slight lead.

“I’m not talking about President Trump, in the sense that he’s not on the ballot,” Husted said. At the same time, he said that if Trump was on the ballot, it would make his election easier: “He’s won Ohio three times.”

Republicans began this election cycle favored to keep the Senate: Democrats would need to defend all their seats and then notch wins in solidly Trump states to take the majority. Republicans were far more worried about losing the House, where dozens of seats are in play.

But the states that Democrats see as truly competitive have gradually expanded beyond North Carolina, which Trump won narrowly in 2024, and Maine, where he lost. More states once considered solidly Republican are in the mix, including Alaska, Iowa, Texas and Ohio. GOP hopes for flipping a Democratic seat in Georgia have faded, although Republicans think they have a chance to pick up a seat in Michigan.

Ohio Republicans are worried about voters like Jerry Gray, who worked at the paper mill in Chillicothe for more than 35 years before the plant closed down recently. He was leaning on a friend’s car in the credit union parking lot near the spot where Brown spoke. Gray voted for Trump and Moreno in 2024. Ross County, which includes Chillicothe, voted 69% for Trump and 62% for Moreno. Gray, 64, a self- described “common Joe,” said he has paid well over $5 for a gallon of gas since the Iran war started. Asked how he planned to vote, Gray shrugged. He liked Brown for helping with contract negotiations at the plant in the past, but he wasn’t sure whom he would back.

“Let’s see what happens with the war,” he said.

Husted said he wants the war to end soon, though he has declined to back Democratic--led efforts to stop military operations. He knows voters are worried about rising prices, “and they should be.” But he blames policies Brown backed for inflation, not the war, or Trump’s tariffs.

“All of these policies that stink, that are driving up prices, are his policies—on healthcare and energy,” Husted said.

Ohio is expected to be one of the most expensive Senate contests. A super PAC affiliated with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D., N.Y.) recently announced an initial $40 million television-ad reservation to support Brown. That follows a $79 million investment in Ohio last month by a super PAC tied to Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R., S.D.).

Husted is one of many Republican candidates who will be challenged to turn out Trump’s coalition but also risk backlash from “independent voters who are mad at the president,” said Nathan Gonzales, editor and publisher of the nonpartisan newsletter Inside Elections.

Inside Elections recently shifted Ohio in Democrats’ direction, from “lean Republican” to “tilt Republican.” The newsletter also moved two deep-red states, Nebraska and South Carolina, from “solid Republican” to “likely Republican.”

In Chillicothe, signs of economic difficulty are readily apparent, from prices at the pump to empty storefronts.

The town’s paper mill, an enormous complex with a smokestack south of downtown, is mostly closed, with weeds growing through asphalt and dumpsters filled with debris. Ohio’s Republican leaders tried to save the plant, and a smaller operation has opened on the site to make medical gloves, employing fewer people.

The county’s most recent unemployment rate was 6.2% in February, while Ohio’s was 4.2%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Gloria Dailey, 61, and Scott Dailey, 65, live on a street near the closed plant. The couple are Democrats and came to hear Brown, whom they both support.

They live on what they describe as “a Trump street,” and in 2024, many of their neighbors flew Trump flags at their homes. Now the flags are gone, the couple said.

“These were people who would bring up a conversation about Trump and assume that you’re agreeing with them,” Gloria Dailey said. “They don’t do that anymore. They talk about other things.”

Democratic Senate candidate Sherrod Brown, center, spoke at a campaign event in Portsmouth, Ohio, last month.

BRIAN KAISER FOR WSJ