Epstein Fallout Piles Pressure On U.K. Leader

BY MAX COLCHESTER

LONDON—The Jeffrey Epstein scandal is fueling a mutiny within the U.K.’s ruling Labour Party that threatens Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s already shaky hold on power.

Starmer, whose popularity has plummeted to near-record lows since his election in 2024, spent the week fending off questions from lawmakers over why he appointed Peter Mandelson, an old friend of the convicted sex offender, to be Britain’s ambassador to Washington. Starmer subsequently fired Mandelson last year when emails were published by the U.S. Justice Department showing Mandelson’s friendship with Epstein lasted much longer than previously known.

This week, however, further releases not only confirmed the depth of the links between the two men but also appeared to show that Mandelson had emailed market-sensitive government documents and confidential information about a pending European debt bailout to the disgraced financier back in 2009—information that could have allowed Epstein to trade on the inside information. British police have said they are investigating whether the emails broke the law.

Mandelson hasn’t publicly commented on the emails but has apologized to Epstein’s victims. He didn’t respond to requests for comment.

A cluster of dissatisfied Labour lawmakers have leapt on the scandal to try to catalyze Starmer’s departure from office as the party trails in the polls, heaping pressure on the Labour leader. On Wednesday, it reached fever pitch after Starmer admitted he named Mandelson to the role in Washington despite knowing that the party grandee had maintained ties with Epstein after he was jailed for sex offenses in 2008.

Apology offered

Starmer attempted to draw a line under the matter on Thursday, saying he was sorry for appointing Mandelson. “None of us knew the depth and the darkness of that relationship,” he said during a speech, in which he said Mandelson had repeatedly lied to him. Asked how he would respond to his party colleagues’ doubts about his leadership, the prime minister instead listed other issues he said were more worthy of discussion, such as the cost of living.

Mandelson’s links to Epstein and apparent leaking of sensitive government information have snowballed into a political scandal that is dominating the British press. The prime minister is in a “very grave situation,” said Luke Sullivan, who previously worked as Starmer’s political director. “You cannot underes-timate what a big political crisis this is for the government.”

On Thursday, the pound fell against the dollar and U.K. government borrowing costs jumped, as investors braced for Starmer to be replaced by a more left-wing Labour leader who could potentially borrow more to boost state spending. However, several analysts have noted there isn’t a clear front-runner to succeed Starmer at this stage, and any defenestration could still take months to materialize.

Starmer has promised that Downing Street would publish documents that show that Mandelson lied to him about the extent of his relationship with Epstein, notably from the vetting process undertaken by civil servants before the ambassadorial appointment. However, he said documents that were deemed linked to national security wouldn’t be released.

A rebellion by his lawmakers on Wednesday forced the government to change course, handing oversight of the disclosures around the appointment to an independent parliamentary committee—a sign, some analysts say, of Starmer’s fading control over the parliamentary party.

There is growing speculation that Starmer will have to force out his most senior aide, Morgan McSweeney, who is an old ally of Mandelson, to placate his lawmakers. It is unclear whether Labour’s rebels will succeed, but the episode is laying bare how much the prime minister’s political capital has eroded since he came to power with a big majority less than two years ago.

For months, the gossip in the tea rooms of the House of Commons has focused on predicting not if but when Starmer would be pushed out of office. The British leader’s popularity ratings have cratered since he was elected. YouGov polling shows he has the joint lowest favorability rating of any prime minister on record, bar Liz Truss, who sparked a market panic and resigned after 49 days.

Starmer’s Labour is now trailing in the polls behind the populist anti-immigration party Reform UK. The ruling party’s support has halved since the latest election, says pollster Survation, with voters splintering off to a range of different parties on both ends of the political spectrum.

Starmer, who pitched himself to the nation as a technocratic salve after years of chaotic Conservative government, has instead himself presided over a series of miniscandals. Together with a slow-burning cost-of-living crisis and his own staid political style, the combination has leached his authority away.

Successor unclear

However, it isn’t yet clear who could succeed him or what they would do differently to win back disaffected Labour voters. The closest thing to a front-runner is Wes Streeting, the current health secretary. Other possible challengers include Angela Rayner, who is popular on the left of the party but is currently under investigation by tax authorities after she admitted she underpaid tax on a property purchase. Another stalking horse is Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, though Labour Party officials recently blocked his efforts to become a lawmaker, which is a prerequisite for taking the top job.

“I believe Keir is a responsible person & will want to consider whether in the interest of the country he should continue” as prime minister, Labour lawmaker John McDonnell wrote on Thursday.

There are pinch points on the horizon, notably a special district election in late February that will act as a gauge of Labour’s standing with the British public. There are also May local elections, which will be a de facto midterm referendum on Starmer. If they go badly, it could prompt a wider rebellion in the party ranks.

The process of removing a Labour leader is cumbersome, requiring 20% of the party’s 400-plus lawmakers to back an alternative candidate, along with trade unions. No Labour Party leader has ever been deposed while in office.