Welfare Scandal Clouds Walz’s 2026 Bid

BY JOHN MCCORMICK

MINNEAPOLIS—The massive welfare-fraud scandal in Minnesota dogging Gov. Tim Walz as he seeks re-election in a state that has prided itself on good governance is giving Republicans a potent line of attack against a critic of President Trump.

The unsuccessful 2024 Democratic vice presidential nominee is still favored by nonpartisan analysts to win in November. But the large-scale theft—still being tabulated and growing—is a major distraction for Democrats as outrage and embarrassment swell in Minnesota and beyond.

Republicans are working hard to fan the flames in the direction of Walz, who embraced the traditional political attackdog assignment for vice presidential candidates during his 91 days on the national ticket.

The GOP has plenty to work with from convictions already of roughly 60 defendants. In what has been described as the nation’s largest Covid-era scheme, more than 90 people— most of Somali descent— have been charged. The cases, brought by the U.S. attorney in Minnesota, are part of Justice Department efforts to uncover theft from assistance programs.

While some of the fraud predates Walz’s tenure, the most widespread losses uncovered— involving a nonprofit called Feeding Our Future that exploited a federally funded child-nutrition program—saw its first 47 defendants charged in 2022 near the end of Walz’s first term and during former President Joe Biden’s administration. Some of those convicted used the money to buy luxury cars, real estate, jewelry and international vacations, prosecutors have said.

How much has been stolen through fraudulent meal and housing programs, daycare centers, Medicaid services and more is still being debated, with the state’s largest newspaper, the Minnesota Star Tribune, documenting from court records more than $200 million and the president and prosecutors suggesting billions.

The Trump administration said Tuesday it had frozen federal child-care funding to Minnesota following allegations of fraud involving day --care centers highlighted in a viral video by a right-wing influencer. Walz responded that Republicans are using the investigations as an excuse to cut programs for Minnesotans, while a local station, WCCOTV, debunked some of the video’s claims using securitycamera footage from one of the daycare centers.

Rep. James Comer (R., Ky.), House Oversight and Government Reform Committee chair, has set a first hearing Wednesday on the fraud. Walz has been invited to appear Feb. 10, but hasn’t said whether he will attend.

“Fraud as an issue will haunt him until November,” said Blois Olson, a political analyst who publishes a Minnesota politics newsletter. “He has not addressed the issue loudly enough, and most people think that he has not taken it seriously enough. It’s a sign that there’s just fraud fatigue, which ultimately means Walz fatigue.”

In a Wall Street Journal interview last year, Walz acknowledged the risk of voters getting tired of him. If he wins a third term, he could become the first Minnesota governor to serve 12 consecutive years.

Calls for Walz to step down have grown beyond just Re---publican officials. David Nim --mer, a retired, prominent Minnesota reporter and news executive, took that position in a letter published Tuesday by the Star Tribune. “Whether the welfare fraud is millions or billions of dollars, it is egregious,” he wrote.

In recent months, Walz hired a former judge who also worked as an FBI agent and superintendent of Minnesota’s top crime-fighting agency to lead fraud prevention, while also shutting down a program susceptible to fraud and ordering an outside audit of Medicaid billing.

The governor declined to be interviewed for this article.

“This is on my watch. I am accountable for this,” he told reporters last month. “More importantly, I am the one that will fix it.” Minnesota, native state of the late Peanuts comic-strip creator Charles Schulz, has been a bit like Charlie Brown and the football for Republicans in recent decades. They often take a run at trying to win in the blue-leaning state, but no Republican has done so statewide since 2006.

Roughly a dozen Republicans are competing ahead of an August primary to win the right to challenge Walz. The most recent entrant, MyPillow Chief Executive Officer Mike Lindell, has faced legal and financial troubles for spreading false claims the 2020 presidential election was stolen from Trump because of widespread fraud.

Trump, who has a long personal history with Lindell, gave the businessman a shout out last month while speaking in North Carolina. He stopped short of a formal endorsement, but said Lindell “deserves to be governor.”

Even with Walz on her ticket, former Vice President Kamala Harris beat Trump in Minnesota by 4.2 percentage points—down from a Democratic advantage of 7.1 points in 2020. The state’s legislature is also nearly evenly divided.

National Democrats are already on the defensive this year in several other Midwest states. Republicans hope to capture governorships held by Democrats in Kansas and the presidential battlegrounds of Michigan and Wisconsin.

Former Gov. Tim Pawlenty, the last Republican to win statewide in Minnesota, said Walz has responsibility for the scandal because he or his team didn’t take the early fraud signals seriously enough. “None of this is going away quickly or easily,” he said.

The scandal runs counter to a view among many Minnesotans that they have good governance, while raising questions about whether a state known for being “Minnesota Nice” was too generous in helping the less fortunate.

“This administration has turned Minnesota Nice into Minnesota incompetent and now voters are understandably Minnesota mad,” Pawlenty said.

Some voters said the state’s charitable tradition is partly to blame. “It’s too Minnesota Nice, and that’s how we got in this situation,” said Republican Kathy Schwartz, a 79year-old retired business owner who lives in a Minneapolis suburb.

A December poll by KSTPTV and SurveyUSA found Minnesota voters divided on Walz’s job performance, 48% approving and 48% disapproving. More than two-thirds said he needs to do more to stop fraud.

Trump’s numbers among Minnesotans are worse: 42% approving and 55% disapproving of his job performance. The state’s GOP has also been rocked by division and financial challenges in recent years.

Izzi Levy, a spokeswoman for the Democratic Governors Association, said in a statement that Walz’s record would contrast with what she described as chaos on the GOP side.

Democrat Myron Just, an 84-year-old retired former North Dakota agriculture commissioner who lives in Minneapolis, said he wishes someone from his party other than Walz was running.

“If it happens on your watch, it’s your responsibility,” he said. “This is really going to hurt him.”

Democrat Jena Illescas Gomez, a 35-year-old elementary- school teacher who lives in a St. Paul suburb, said she isn’t very familiar with the fraud cases and will vote for Walz because she likes what he has accomplished. “He stands up for things,” she said.